If you’ve been in trucking for the past few years, you’ve probably felt it in your bones, and in your bank account. Since early 2022, the freight market has been dragging through what’s now called the Great Freight Recession. This isn’t just another dip or slow season. It’s the longest, deepest downturn the industry’s ever seen.
Thousands of carriers – especially smaller ones – have shut down. Freight rates have hit the floor. And everyone’s asking the same thing: What happened?
Let’s break it down.
Remember the pandemic years? Freight rates were through the roof. Shippers were desperate. Consumers were buying everything in sight. And for a while, trucking felt
like gold.
Cheap loans, stimulus money, and high-paying loads pulled in tens of thousands of new carriers. According to FMCSA data, 2020 and 2021 saw a record number of new DOT numbers filed. Many were one-truck operations run by first-time owners chasing high rates and quick payouts.
But just like in any bubble, the rush didn’t last.
Once the economy cooled and the stimulus dried up, freight demand took a hit. Warehouses filled up, imports slowed, and Americans stopped spending like they were stuck at home.
But here’s the kicker: all those new trucks and carriers that entered during the boom?
They stuck around.
Now you had way too many trucks chasing way too few loads. Classic overcapacity.
The result? Rates tanked. Hard. Spot market rates dropped below operating costs for many, and even contract freight wasn’t safe from the squeeze. Carriers were now bleeding money just to stay on the road.
When freight rates fall, trucking companies start trimming fat. Fuel, insurance, and equipment are fixed or close to it, so naturally, some turn to labor.
Wages are one of the biggest costs for any fleet. But try asking a seasoned, licensed driver to take a pay cut when everything from groceries to diesel is going up. It doesn’t go over well.
So what did some carriers do? They started hiring drivers without proper work permits. In other words: undocumented labor. And it’s not just about immigration status, many of these drivers were operating with questionable CDL credentials or didn’t even speak enough English to pass federal requirements.
It might’ve helped some companies stay afloat, but it came at a serious cost to the rest of the industry.
Here’s something that doesn’t get enough attention: some states have been accepting foreign CDLs without requiring drivers to pass a U.S.-based test. That means someone who’s never driven an 80,000-pound rig under FMCSA rules could legally haul freight across the country.
Think about it – no experience with U.S. traffic laws, no proof of proper training, no real idea how to handle icy roads in Indiana or mountain grades in West Virginia.
Worse yet, many of these drivers couldn’t speak enough English to understand inspection reports, safety protocols, or dispatch instructions. That’s not a knock on them, it’s a knock on the system that let it happen.
Now, this part gets dicey. Multiple sources (including some whistleblowers inside the system) have pointed out that DOT inspectors were instructed to “look the other way” in certain situations. That included ignoring work permit issues, turning a blind eye to English language deficiencies, and not digging too deep into CDL verifications.
The idea was to avoid discrimination claims, but what actually happened is that a lot of underqualified drivers stayed on the road. Not surprisingly, accident rates involving heavy-duty trucks went up.
Trucking has always been a door into the American economy for those looking to build a better life. For many, driving a truck meant income, stability, and a place to sleep (since most lived in their cabs). It beat the alternatives.
But that doesn’t change the fact that many were paid less, treated worse, and put behind the wheel with less support than anyone should be. And when you’ve got thousands of these drivers working for less, it undercuts the whole market and drives rates down across the board.
Experienced drivers left. Smaller carriers folded. Safety started slipping.
With all these changes, the trucking landscape started looking worse. Rates were unstable. Compliance took a back seat. Maintenance got skipped. And safety? Let’s just say a lot of trucks on the road shouldn’t have been there.
In the past couple of years, we’ve seen a rise in fatal crashes involving Class 8 trucks. That’s not just bad PR, it’s a tragedy. And it’s a red flag for insurers, regulators, and shippers alike.
When safety standards fall, everyone pays: higher insurance premiums, stricter audits, fewer shipper contracts, and a public that doesn’t trust trucks on the highway.
The market is still rough. Freight volumes are slow, rates are soft, and fuel isn’t exactly cheap. But if enforcement efforts stick and some of the excess capacity starts falling away, there could be light at the end of the tunnel.
Less capacity means healthier rate floors. Safer roads mean better insurance terms. And companies that invested in real compliance, safety tech, and qualified drivers might finally get some breathing room again.
But we’re not there yet.
This isn’t just a conversation about documents or licensing. It’s about fairness, safety, and the long-term health of the industry.
If you’re a driver who’s put in the miles and done things by the book, it’s frustrating to watch your paycheck shrink because others are cutting corners. And if you’re a carrier like KSM Carrier Group, it’s even more personal. While others cut back, our safety department raised the bar. We didn’t relax expectations, we tightened them. We kept investing in door sensors, geofencing, premium dash cams, and verified cold chain equipment, even when margins were tight.
That commitment paid off. KSM kept moving forward, even as others slowed down. Over the past few years, we’ve added more trucks, brought in more qualified drivers, and strengthened relationships with dedicated customers, many of whom chose to work with us long before the market dipped. Why? Because consistency, transparency, and safety still matter.
In a time when many carriers folded or compromised, KSM kept building. And that’s the difference between surviving a downturn and positioning for long-term success.
The hope now is that with smarter enforcement and a shrinking capacity pool, the industry can bounce back, and this time, on more solid ground.
Because let’s face it: Trucking only works when the wheels are turning—and when the rules are the same for everybody. And at KSM, we’ve never stopped moving forward.
